中美芯片摩擦升级，关注欧元区和美国5月PMI初值

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification. After the implementation of a package of financial policies, China's overall foreign trade in April slightly exceeded expectations, but there were differences in exports by country/region and product type. The central bank adjusted the LPR, and various economic and trade events occurred, including the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the adjustment of tariff counter - measures [1] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The "tax rate + quota" restriction idea between the UK and the US may impact global trade, and it is related to the negotiation process with other countries. The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different types of commodities have different price trends affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand relationships [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. By country/region, exports to the US decreased by 21% (previous value 9.1%), and exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (previous value 11.6%). By product, labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% (previous value 9.1%) [1] - On May 19, the central bank stated it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policies. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one - year and five - year LPR to 3% and 3.5% respectively [1] - On May 21, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill". China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version [1][6] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and maintained communication based on the Geneva talks consensus [1] - Before July, the macro - economy is expected to focus more on economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] Impact of US Tariff Policies - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at 25% [2] - The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement and expect to reach a temporary agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][5] - The US Department of Commerce strengthened export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be suspected of being illegal [2] - The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, indicating a further easing of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end. The Fed may adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] Commodity Market Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of the US stock market adjustment. Agricultural products have relatively stable demand, and tariffs are more likely to cause upward price fluctuations [3] - In the energy sector, the IEA lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, resulting in a relatively loose supply in the medium - term fundamentals. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and LNG by the end of 2027 and impose new sanctions on Russia [3] Important News - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill" to improve the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities [6] - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, taking a key step towards signing the upgrade protocol [6] - Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][6] - The US House of Representatives reached an agreement on raising the SALT deduction cap, removing a key obstacle to the Trump tax cut bill [6] - US Treasury yields rose, causing the yield curve to steepen. The dollar weakened against major currencies, oil prices rose, and spot gold reached $3320 per ounce [2] - The EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia, and Chinese and UAE companies were included in the sanctions list. The EU plans to levy a €2 tax on small parcels entering the EU [3][5] - China expressed concerns about the US "Golden Dome" anti - missile system, stating that it violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space and exacerbates the risk of outer - space militarization [5]