新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购意愿有所增强，铜价则暂陷震荡格局-20250522

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overall, domestic inventories have increased since last week due to high copper prices and month spreads, and cautious downstream procurement. With some delivery goods flowing out this week, it's difficult to maintain high premiums and discounts. With limited new downstream orders, inventories may still increase slightly. Considering the rapid changes in macro - factors and the market's digestion of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, ranging from 75,000 yuan/ton to 79,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On May 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,880 yuan/ton and closed at 78,100 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,750 yuan/ton and closed at 77,550 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, spot market quotes continued to decline. The price difference between flat - water copper and good copper was significant. Mainstream brands' premiums were reported at 230 - 260 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers were active in bargain - hunting. Some holders cut prices to 160 yuan/ton to rush for transactions, while brands like Xiangguang still quoted 220 - 240 yuan/ton. Jinchuan large - board premium remained firm at 300 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was generally quoted around 100 yuan. The market trading sentiment was divided, with the shipping index dropping to 3.12 and the procurement index rising to 3.26. It's expected that imported goods will suppress premiums tomorrow, and if it falls below 100 yuan/ton, stronger procurement demand may be triggered [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, and the yields of 20 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds rose above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. In May, the Fed started buying long - term bonds. The US House Speaker reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction limit, but the voting time for the tax bill is undecided. Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he would fully control Gaza and reserve the right to act unilaterally against Iran. Many countries condemned the Israeli army for firing at diplomatic missions in the West Bank. Two Israeli sources said Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if US - Iran negotiations break down. Domestically, China and the ten ASEAN countries completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [3] - Mine End: On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced to acquire New World Resources (NWR) for A$185 million to include the Antler copper project in Arizona, USA. CAML will acquire all shares at A$0.05 per share in cash and hold 100% equity in the Antler project after the transaction. The Antler project is a high - grade volcanic - hosted massive sulfide copper deposit. A pre - feasibility study (PFS) in 2025 outlined a 12 - year mine life, with an average annual payable copper - equivalent production of about 30,000 tons from the 2nd to the 11th year. The total mineral resource estimate is 14.2 million tons, with a copper - equivalent grade of 3.8%. The after - tax net present value is estimated to be $498 million at a 7% discount rate, the internal rate of return is over 30%, and the payback period is three years. The NWR board recommends shareholders to vote in favor of the transaction, and project licensing is in progress [4] - Smelting and Import: On May 20, Antofagasta started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, Chinese smelters may require a "zero - dollar" processing fee (TC/RCs) in the second half of 2025, a 100% drop from the 2024 benchmark price of $80/ton and may even turn negative. Antofagasta's processing fee with Chinese smelters in December last year was $21.25/ton. China's copper smelting capacity expansion has intensified the supply shortage. BMI data shows that China's smelting capacity is expected to reach 12.78 million tons in 2025, an 8% increase from last year and a 25% increase from 2021 [5] - Consumption: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption boost was limited. Due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. But with average overall downstream orders, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,575 tons to 168,825 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 139,200 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous week [5]