黑色建材日报：宏观预期偏弱，黑色震荡运行-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation is weak, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and are in an oscillating state. Iron ore prices are oscillating with high - level iron - water production. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and their prices are oscillating. The demand for thermal coal is weak, and the decline in coal prices has narrowed [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated slightly. The main rebar contract 2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the main hot - rolled coil contract 2510 closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market was average, and the overall transaction in the spot market was also average, with the national building materials sales volume at 98000 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials have improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the output of building materials remains stable. As the southern region enters the flood season, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates has decreased, consumption remains high, and inventory is continuously decreasing, supporting plate prices. Steel exports are resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market. Although domestic exports have largely offset the decline in exports to the US, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports, resulting in weak steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies and the impact of tariffs on indirect steel exports [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated upward. As of the close, the main iron ore contract 2509 rose by 0.76%. In the spot market, the price indices of port iron ore showed mixed trends, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cumulative trading volume of national main port iron ore and forward - looking spot decreased month - on - month [3]. - Comprehensive View: The shipment of iron ore has recovered this period. The iron - water production is oscillating at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remains relatively high, but there is no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply - demand, but when the actual situation turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies. Attention should be paid to iron ore shipments, blast furnace restart and maintenance, and the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the double - coking futures oscillated as a whole. For coke, the steel prices have been oscillating downward recently, and the trading volume is weak. For coking coal, as the second - round price cut for coke is emerging, the market is pessimistic. Coke enterprises continue to replenish inventory as needed. Some prices were lowered by 20 - 40 yuan/ton yesterday, and most auction transactions ended with price cuts, with a high rate of auction failures. In the imported Mongolian coal market, the bearish expectation is strong, the shipment pressure at the port is high, and the market trading volume continues to weaken [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, coke enterprises still have profits, and the coke supply is relatively stable. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season and may decline. Therefore, some steel mills are controlling their procurement. The overall coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand expectation in the off - season is weak. Although coke is supported to some extent by the high - level iron - water production of steel mills, there are concerns about future inventory reduction, and coking coal shows a trend of inventory accumulation. Without actual driving factors such as macro - level benefits or coal mine production cuts, the supply - demand of coking coal is expected to remain loose. Attention should be paid to changes in iron - water production and the impact of overseas tariff policies [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal is expected to oscillate weakly; coke is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the origin area, the decline in port prices has slowed down recently, and the pit - mouth coal prices have been slightly lowered. The market sentiment has slightly eased. The number of coal - hauling trucks in a few coal mines has increased, reducing inventory pressure. In the port area, the port market is running weakly and steadily. The market inquiry demand has increased, and the quotes are gradually firming up. However, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term market is difficult to rebound. In the import market, the imported coal market is running weakly and steadily. As the domestic coal price continues to fall, the bid price of imported coal continues to decline, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [7]. - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand for coal prices lacks support. As the weather warms up, the price clearly lacks support. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [7].