新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，关注仓单增加影响-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is continuously hitting new lows, with an expected increase in supply, no bright spots on the consumption side, and significant inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. The price is approaching historical lows, and most enterprises face high cost pressure. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the spot price is weak, recent trading volume is low, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. The acceleration of warehouse receipt registration requires attention to its impact on the market [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On May 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to reach new lows. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,980 yuan/ton and closed at 7,865 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton (-1.75%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 192,802 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 21 was 65,653 lots, a decrease of 596 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (-100) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,800 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region continued to decline, while the silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [2]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed mixed trends. With the arrival of the recent trading window period, the downstream demand for raw rubber increased rapidly, and the trading was good. However, due to the weak demand for room - temperature rubber, the overall trading of D4 was average [2]. - Strategy - Given the current situation, attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 35,630 yuan/ton and closing at 35,860 yuan/ton, a 0.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 73,488 (70,536 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 157,225 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The re - feeding material was quoted at 32.00 - 35.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month increase of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.50%) [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. For example, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the efficient PERC182 battery cell was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W [5][7]. - The registration of warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, with 310 new lots added on that day, and the total warehouse receipts reached 450 lots [7]. - Strategy - For single - side trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging when the price is high. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][7].