新能源及有色金属日报：现货升水走强，消费不减热度-20250522

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminium: Positive spread arbitrage [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminium, the spot market has strong consumption with rising spot premiums and continued inventory drawdown, but the approaching traditional off - season and potential end of export rush may limit further upward price movement. Overseas factors and inventory changes need attention [3]. - For alumina, the spot follows the strong trend of the futures. Although there are concerns about bauxite supply due to Guinea mine disturbances, the supply surplus expectation remains. Attention should be paid to bauxite offshore data from Guinea [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminium Data - Aluminium spot prices: On May 21, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,240 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,210 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminium futures: On May 21, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminium opened at 20,135 yuan/ton, closed at 20,190 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton or 0.65% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 116,735 lots, an increase of 10,293 lots, and open interest was 200,224 lots, an increase of 458 lots [1]. - Aluminium inventory: As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 585,000 tons. As of May 21, 2025, LME aluminium inventory was 388,900 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Data - Alumina spot prices: On May 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina futures: On May 21, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,130 yuan/ton, closed at 3,246 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 3.11% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 2,483,203 lots, an increase of 538,141 lots, and open interest was 357,007 lots, an increase of 14,649 lots [2]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminium: In the spot market, inventories in three regions continued to decline, spot premiums rose, and consumption remained strong. Overseas, geopolitical conflicts and sanctions may have an impact. The approaching traditional off - season and potential end of export rush may slow down inventory drawdown. Aluminium rod production is strong, while the production of aluminium sheets, strips and foils has slightly weakened but remains at a high level [3]. - Alumina: 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi today at a spot cash ex - factory price of 3,200 yuan/ton. The spot market followed the strong trend of the futures, which was driven by disturbances in the Guinean bauxite mine. Although there was a large increase in bauxite imports from January to April, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3].