农产品日报：出栏量增加，猪价震荡运行-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3]. - The investment rating for the egg market is also neutral [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future pig supply will further increase while consumption is expected to remain stable, leading to increased pressure on spot prices. As the weather gets hotter, the demand for secondary fattening will be suppressed, and the price difference between large - fat pigs and standard pigs may widen, accelerating the slaughter of large - fat pigs. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [2][3]. - For the egg market, last week was the digestion period after stockpiling, and demand was hard to increase. The current market transaction has slowed down, and festival stockpiling by supermarkets and e - commerce has not started. Considering the limited boost from the Dragon Boat Festival, the storage time of eggs has decreased due to the weather, and traders are cautious in purchasing, mostly choosing to buy as needed. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and the consumer end has limited ability to accept high prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.29%. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.60 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.88 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.26 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.00 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on May 21 was 114.09, up 0.17 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - Future pig supply will increase, consumption will be stable, and spot pressure will rise. The demand for secondary fattening will be restricted by hot weather, and the price difference between large - fat and standard pigs may widen, accelerating the slaughter of large - fat pigs [2]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral, and the pig market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [3]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract yesterday was 2,959 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 5.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.17%. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.04 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.04 yuan/jin. On May 21, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, an increase of 0.01 days from the previous day, an increase of 0.91%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.63 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous day, an increase of 1.88% [3]. Market Analysis - Last week was the post - stockpiling digestion period, demand was hard to increase, market transactions slowed down, festival stockpiling had not started, the Dragon Boat Festival boost was limited, egg storage time decreased due to weather, traders were cautious in purchasing, and the short - term oversupply pattern was difficult to change [4]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5].