港口累库速率仍偏慢

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - There are concerns about inventory accumulation at ports, but the rate of inventory accumulation is still slow. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, and downstream MTO demand and traditional downstream demand are showing different trends. Meanwhile, methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - main futures basis, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit, such as the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31]. III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][35][37]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It lists various regional price differences, like the price difference between North Shandong and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and South Shandong, etc. [39][49][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [44][56]. Market News and Important Data - Inland: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 763 yuan/ton (-30). Inland methanol prices in different regions have changed, with inventory and pending orders in inland factories decreasing. For example, Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 334,010 tons (-1,760), and inland factory pending orders are 235,206 tons (-38,380) [1]. - Ports: Taicang methanol is 2320 yuan/ton (+5), and Longzhong's port total inventory is 490,379 tons (+6,479). Downstream MTO operating rate is 82.31% (-0.58%). Regional price differences have also changed [2]. Market Analysis - Port demand: There are plans for the resumption of work at downstream MTO Shenghong Sierbang, and attention should be paid to the rate of load increase. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, but the rate of port inventory accumulation is still slow [3]. - Inland: The operating rate of inland coal - based methanol is still high, but the rate of inventory accumulation has slowed down this week. The low load of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the demand in Shandong [3]. - Valuation: Methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Strategy - Consider cautious short - selling hedging [4].