Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main issue with coking coal is the continuous increase in domestic supply, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although there is a marginal improvement in demand expectations in the next two months due to the extension of the window period for export and re - export, the price may still decline. - Coke has a stronger expectation of price decline due to the weak performance of terminal finished products and the continuous concession of raw materials. The low inventory of coking plants provides some support, but the weakness of coking coal drives the price of coke down [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions - Trading Strategies: For coking coal, the short - term trend is weak. After a rebound, short positions can be taken on rallies. For coke, range trading is recommended, buying near the support level and shorting after rising [4][5][12]. - Domestic Prices: In the futures market, under the bearish pattern, coking coal and coke had a slight rebound but were still suppressed by the loose supply - demand situation. J2509 closed at 1417.50 (up 10.00), and JM2509 closed at 842.00 (up 3.50). In the domestic spot market, the prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [12]. - Import Prices: The price of Mongolian coal decreased, with Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to 785.00 yuan/ton. The prices of other imported coals remained stable, and the cost - performance of US coal was still not high [17]. - Basis Situation: The basis of coke was - 41.78, the basis of Shanxi coking coal warehouse receipt was 242.50, and the basis of Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipt was 39.00 [20]. Second Part: Fundamentals - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% from the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily output of independent coking plants and steel mills' coke also had corresponding changes [22]. - Inventory: The coking coal inventory in six ports was 306.09 tons, with a change of 8.28 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants was 884.93 tons, a decrease of 31.69 tons. The coking coal inventory in steel mills was 791.21 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons. The coke inventory in four ports was 225.11 tons, a decrease of 3.97 tons. The coke inventory in coking plants was 94.31 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons. The coke inventory in steel mills was 663.80 tons, a decrease of 7.23 tons [25]. Third Part: Spreads No specific numerical analysis of spreads was provided in the report, but relevant spread charts were presented, including spreads between different contract months of coking coal and coke, and the ratios of coking coal to coke, coke to iron ore, and coke to rebar [35][36][37].
黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略-20250522
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-05-22 03:51