Guoxin Securities·2025-05-22 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization and the standardization of AEB systems, indicating a shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles [1][3]. - It highlights the mid-to-long-term opportunities in the automotive sector driven by the rise of domestic brands and the demand for incremental components in the context of electric and intelligent trends [3][12]. - The report anticipates a strong new product cycle for companies like Huawei and Xiaomi in the automotive industry [3][12]. Monthly Production and Sales Data - In April, the automotive production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.590 million units, respectively, with a month-on-month decline of 12.9% and 11.2%, but a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% [1]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) saw production and sales of 1.251 million and 1.226 million units, with year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%, respectively [1][19]. - NEVs accounted for 47.3% of total new vehicle sales [1]. Weekly Data Insights - From May 5 to May 11, domestic passenger car registrations totaled 454,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [1]. - NEV registrations during the same period reached 226,100 units, with a year-on-year increase of 16.0% and a month-on-month increase of 10.7% [1]. Market Performance - For the week of May 14 to May 18, the CS automotive index rose by 1.25%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.22% [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in the stock prices of passenger vehicle manufacturers, with notable gains for companies like Li Auto and Xpeng [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [3][12][20]. - Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Li Auto, Xpeng, Geely, Yutong Bus, and Seres [3][4]. - Intelligent component suppliers: Cobo, Huayang Group, Joyson Electronics, and Bolong Technology [3]. - Robotics companies: Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Shuanghuan Transmission [3]. - Domestic alternatives: Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, Jifeng, New Spring, and Horizon Robotics [3]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, including: - Li Auto: Outperform, with an estimated EPS of -0.05 for 2025 [4]. - Geely: Outperform, with an estimated EPS of 1.36 for 2025 [4]. - Xpeng: Outperform, with an estimated EPS of -0.84 for 2025 [4]. - Horizon Robotics: Outperform, with an estimated EPS of -0.14 for 2025 [4]. - Top Group: Outperform, with an estimated EPS of 2.04 for 2025 [4].