Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xpeng Inc. with a target price of US$28.00 for ADR and HK$110.00 for H-shares, indicating an upside potential of 42.2% and 41.8% respectively from current prices [3][7]. Core Views - Xpeng's 1Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved gross profit margin (GPM) and government subsidies, leading to an optimistic outlook for sales volume and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level by 3Q25, supported by increased R&D investments and new model rollouts [1][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in sales volume and GPM for FY25, with a revised forecast of 460,000 units sold, reflecting a 20,000 unit increase from previous estimates [7][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are raised to RMB 86,862 million, representing a 112.6% year-over-year growth [2][9]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 13,971 million in FY25E, with a gross margin of 16.1% [9][11]. - The net loss forecast for FY25E has been revised down to RMB 907.2 million, a significant improvement from previous estimates [9][11]. - For FY26E, net profit is projected at RMB 3,683 million, reflecting a positive trajectory in profitability [9][11]. Earnings Performance - In 1Q25, Xpeng reported a revenue of RMB 15,811 million, a 141.5% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [8][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in 1Q25 was RMB 168,184, showing a decline of 44.0% compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The company’s net loss for 1Q25 was RMB 664 million, which was narrower than expected, indicating improving financial health [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/S ratio of 1.6 for FY25E, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][9]. - The P/B ratio is projected to be 4.4 for FY25E, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [2][9]. - The report justifies a higher valuation based on Xpeng's leading AI capabilities and clearer profit growth path [7][9].
小鹏汽车-W：Entered a virtuous circle-20250522