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吉宏股份:Q1电商业务回暖,深耕亚洲持续布局出海-20250522

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 was 5.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, with a net profit of 182 million yuan, down 47.28%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue increased to 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.55%, and net profit rose to 59 million yuan, up 38.21% [2][3] - The cross-border e-commerce business generated 3.366 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a decline of 20.93%, while the packaging business saw a slight increase of 0.14% to 2.099 billion yuan. The overall gross margin decreased from 46.66% to 43.93% [3] - The company is investing in AI technology to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, developing models such as ChatGiiKin-6B and GiiAI, which improve product selection and market responsiveness [4] - The company is expanding into the Middle East market and has initiated the process for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to issue 67.91 million shares [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected revenues of 6.265 billion yuan, 6.936 billion yuan, and 7.467 billion yuan, and net profits of 275 million yuan, 328 million yuan, and 386 million yuan respectively [6][8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 5.529 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 17.4%. The net profit was 182 million yuan, down 47.3% [8][10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.9%, with projections for 2025 at 45.6% and 2026 at 46.1% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.47 yuan, with forecasts of 0.71 yuan for 2025 and 0.85 yuan for 2026 [8][10]