SMIC(00981) 第一上海证券·2025-05-22 04:53Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.00, representing a potential upside of 16.27% from the current price of HKD 43.00 [3][5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand from consumer electronics and automotive sectors, despite short-term profit expectations being impacted by unexpected events [3][5]. - The company is positioned as the third-largest wafer foundry globally, with anticipated growth driven by advancements in advanced process technologies and increasing domestic semiconductor production [5][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 6,321.56 million, a decrease of 13.09% year-over-year, with a projected revenue of USD 8,029.92 million for 2024, reflecting a growth of 27.02% [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was USD 902.53 million, down 50.35% from the previous year, with a forecasted recovery to USD 851.73 million in 2025, representing a growth of 72.85% [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was USD 0.11, expected to rise to USD 0.15 in 2025 [4][6]. Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of USD 2.25 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.4%, although slightly below market expectations [5]. - The company’s production capacity increased by 26,000 wafers to 974,000 equivalent 8-inch wafers, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.6%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers reached USD 933, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.9% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 9.0% [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand for AI-related products is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, with wafer shipments increasing but prices anticipated to decline slightly [5]. - The company is set to expand its production capacity at a steady pace, adding an average of 50,000 pieces of 12-inch wafer monthly, primarily driven by demand from AI, automotive, and IoT products [5][6].