Company Overview - SMIC (981) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 50.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.27% from the current price of HKD 43.00[5][9] - The company's market capitalization stands at HKD 339.79 billion, with 7.99 billion shares outstanding[5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, SMIC reported revenue of USD 2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, but below the consensus estimate of USD 2.36 billion[6] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter[6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 161.9% year-on-year to USD 190 million, translating to earnings per share of USD 0.02[6] Production and Capacity - The company's production capacity increased by 26,000 wafers to 974,000 equivalent 8-inch wafers, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.6%, up by 4.1 percentage points[6] - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers reached USD 933, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.0%[6][8] Market Trends and Guidance - SMIC anticipates a revenue decline of 4%-6% in Q2 2025 due to production issues, projecting revenue between USD 2.12 billion and USD 2.16 billion, which is below market expectations[6] - The demand from consumer electronics and automotive sectors remains robust, contributing 40.6% and 9.6% to revenue respectively[7] Future Outlook - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.7% in revenue and 75.4% in net profit over the next three years[9] - SMIC is positioned as the third-largest foundry globally, with potential growth driven by advancements in semiconductor technology and domestic market demand[7][9] Risks - Key risks include potential underperformance in capacity expansion, semiconductor cycle downturns, and slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand[10]
新力量New Force总第4778期
First Shanghai Securities·2025-05-22 04:53