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哔哩哔哩-W（09626）：25Q1年轻社区高活跃，持续盈利
09626BILIBILI(09626) 申万宏源证券·2025-05-22 05:41

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7 billion RMB, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1%, with a year-on-year growth of 24%. Adjusted net profit reached 360 million RMB, surpassing expectations by 47%, resulting in a profit margin of 5.2%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.3 billion RMB [2][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22.53 billion RMB - 2024: 26.83 billion RMB - 2025E: 30.41 billion RMB - 2026E: 33.76 billion RMB - 2027E: 36.62 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 2.9% for 2023, 19% for 2024, 13% for 2025E, 11% for 2026E, and 8% for 2027E [4][7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: -3.43 billion RMB - 2024: -0.02 billion RMB - 2025E: 2.05 billion RMB - 2026E: 2.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 3.51 billion RMB - Earnings per share are projected to be -8.29 RMB for 2023, -0.05 RMB for 2024, and 4.80 RMB for 2025E [4][7] Business Performance Highlights - The company achieved a record high in user engagement with a Q1 2025 Monthly Active Users (MAU) of 368 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and Daily Active Users (DAU) of 107 million, up 4% year-on-year. The average daily usage time per user was 108 minutes, an increase of 3 minutes year-on-year [6] - Game revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.7 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 76%, driven by the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [6] - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20%, with high-margin performance advertising revenue growing over 30% [6] - Value-added services revenue reached 2.8 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with a membership count of 23.5 million, up 7% year-on-year [6] - The company effectively controlled expenses, resulting in a gross margin of 36.3% for Q1 2025, with total expenses increasing by only 4% year-on-year [6]