高盛：中通快递-2025 年中国科技网要点总结：在逆向包裹业务中市场份额稳固增长；竞争依然激烈；买入

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. with a 12-month price target of US$27 or HK$210, indicating a potential upside of approximately 54% from the current price levels [2][19]. Core Insights - ZTO Express is experiencing solid share gains in reverse parcels, despite intense competition in the express delivery industry. The company aims for above-industry volume growth while maintaining service quality for sustainable long-term growth [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing price competition and a higher mix of low-weight small parcels, which are putting pressure on the industry-wide average selling price (ASP). However, ZTO believes there is limited downside to ASP due to the profitability challenges faced by competitors [3][9]. - ZTO plans to invest between Rmb5.5 billion and Rmb6 billion in capital expenditures to ensure that the majority of its land is self-owned, with expectations for a reduction in capex levels by FY26 [1]. Competitive Landscape - The company notes that the competitive landscape remains intense, particularly during peak seasons like the June 18 shopping festival, where ASP is expected to remain pressured as players focus on higher asset utilization [11]. - ZTO has observed increasing pressure on network partners across the industry, which is a key factor in tracking the progress of price competition [9]. Operating Strategies - ZTO is focusing on regaining order volume share while balancing service quality and profitability. The company emphasizes ecosystem sustainability by improving the financial health and efficiency of network partners [1][16]. - The company is also working on cost optimization potentials, particularly in labor costs and automation, to enhance last-mile efficiency [13]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of FY25, ZTO reported parcel volumes of 8.539 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 19%. However, net revenues were Rmb10.892 million, which was 11% lower than expected [15]. - The revenue per parcel decreased to Rmb1.25, down by Rmb0.11 compared to the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [15][17]. EBIT Outlook - The EBIT per order is expected to face continued pressure from competition, although the positive contribution from reverse parcels is noted as a mitigating factor [14].