Sunriver Culture Tourism(600576) 广发证券·2025-05-22 05:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 10.42 CNY and a fair value of 11.04 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 55.22% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 158.67% year-on-year, attributed to acquisitions and government subsidies [7][8]. - The company is expanding its tourism assets across various regions, enhancing its competitive edge through synergies among its diverse business segments [8][9]. - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 13.85 billion CNY, 15.89 billion CNY, and 17.62 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.3%, 14.7%, and 10.9% [11][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of 722 million CNY, net profit of 151 million CNY - 2024A: Revenue of 864 million CNY, net profit of 147 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 1.385 billion CNY, net profit of 364 million CNY, with a growth rate of 148.3% [2][11]. - The EBITDA is expected to grow from 278 million CNY in 2023 to 626 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a strong operational performance [2][11]. Business Segments - Tourism Business: Expected to generate significant revenue growth, with projections of 9.53 billion CNY, 10.48 billion CNY, and 11.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, driven by the recovery of the tourism industry and acquisitions [8][9]. - Cultural Business: Focused on anime and related businesses, with expected revenues declining slightly, indicating a shift towards integrating cultural elements into tourism [10]. - Product Sales: The tea sales segment is projected to grow steadily, with revenues of 760 million CNY, 800 million CNY, and 840 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a stable gross margin [11]. Valuation - The report suggests a valuation based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 11.04 CNY per share, supporting the "Buy" rating [11][14].