银河证券每日晨报-20250522

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the economy and the fiscal strength observed in April 2025, with overall fiscal data showing improvement in both total and structural aspects, supporting economic growth despite negative growth in public budget and government fund revenues [2][5] - The report emphasizes the strategic asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment in Europe, suggesting that equity assets outperform fixed income and currency assets during such periods, with a focus on structural opportunities across different economic phases [10][6] - The company Crystal Optoelectronics has transitioned from a follower to a leader in optical technology, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in 2024 and 2025, driven by product demand in the consumer electronics sector and advancements in AI and optics [12][13] Fiscal Analysis - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a combined expenditure growth rate of 7.2%, while revenue growth remains negative at -1.3%, indicating a widening gap between expenditure and revenue, which supports the economy's resilience [3][4] - Government debt issuance has accelerated, with a cumulative financing of 4.8 trillion yuan in the first four months, significantly higher than the previous year, which is expected to further support economic stability [5][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in sales area and a positive shift in domestic loans, indicating potential support for housing demand due to policy measures [21][24] - Despite a continued negative growth in investment, the report suggests that the head companies in the real estate sector are likely to benefit from improved operational management and increased market share [25][22] Banking Sector - The recent LPR and deposit rate cuts are expected to stabilize bank interest margins, with a projected improvement in bank performance due to supportive financial policies and structural tools [27][30] - The report indicates that the banking sector is poised for a performance turnaround, with a focus on long-term capital inflows and the realization of banking dividends [30][29]