机械行业：2025年中期策略：盈利能力持续改善，关注新质生产力

Investment Summary - The mechanical sector underperformed in 2024 but has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 10.44% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.43 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 12.52 percentage points [4][19] - In Q1 2025, the mechanical industry reported a non-recurring net profit of 27.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.03%, marking the highest absolute value and growth rate since Q1 2021 [4][27] General Machinery Focus - The report suggests focusing on engineering machinery and compressors, as the manufacturing PMI fell by 2.78% in April 2025, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [5][44] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, and with the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, the demand for engineering machinery is expected to increase [5][48] - Beneficiary companies include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), XCMG (000425), LiuGong (000528), and Shantui (000680) for engineering machinery, and Iceberg Cold Chain (000530), Ice Wheel Environment (000811), Hanbell Precise Machinery (002158), and others for compressors [5][58] New Quality Productivity - Policies are increasingly focusing on enhancing total factor productivity represented by new quality productivity, with attention on low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][10] - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government funding support, with projections indicating that by 2035, the delivery of drones could exceed 61 million units, generating a manufacturing output of approximately 490 billion yuan [7] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant oil and gas resources located in deep-sea areas, and domestic technology companies are expected to benefit from the push for domestic substitution [8][9] - Humanoid robots are anticipated to address customization challenges, with a focus on key components such as sensors, motors, screws, and reducers, which are critical for mass production and cost reduction [10][11] Industrial Mother Machines - Industrial mother machines are essential for the mass production of core components, and their advancement is expected to enhance profitability in the humanoid robot sector [11][11] Compressor Market Insights - The compressor market is poised for growth due to high demand from the ice and snow economy, with policies supporting the development of ice and snow sports facilities [58][59] - The report estimates that the annual equipment investment increment from new ice and snow venues could reach approximately 26.6 billion yuan over the next five years [59] - The implementation of new energy efficiency standards in 2025 is expected to drive demand for the replacement of commercial refrigeration equipment, with an estimated 35 million units needing updates [63][66]