2025年4月经济数据点评：生产不弱，需求较稳

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[22] Policy and Structural Adjustments - The current low inflation environment necessitates a focus on price recovery, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting real estate and consumption sectors[5] - The structural shift towards "manufacturing as a nation" continues to strengthen economic resilience, countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on growth[5] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery, with potential turning points in negative narratives observed, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for RMB assets[5] - Risks include potential policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, further declines in real estate, and slower-than-expected implementation of new policies[6]