Bank of China Securities·2025-05-22 06:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on current valuations and expected demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry showed a year-on-year recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 5.58% and 13.33%, respectively [4][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's performance remains stable despite short-term fluctuations in oil prices, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit [27][33]. - The report highlights that the construction projects in the basic chemical sector experienced a negative growth for the first time in five years, indicating potential challenges ahead [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 534.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 34.26 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year growth in nearly three years [4][5]. - The oil and petrochemical sector reported total revenue of 1,931.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 6.35% [27][30]. Profitability Metrics - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin improved to 16.91% and 6.63%, respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.85% [11][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector maintained a gross margin of 19.19% and a net margin of 5.74%, with a slight decrease in ROE to 2.82% [33][38]. Sub-industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector, 22 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in other chemical raw materials (+29.08%) and compound fertilizers (+25.84%) [4][10]. - The oilfield services segment within the oil and petrochemical sector saw a robust net profit growth of 29.82% [27][31]. Construction and Investment Trends - The basic chemical sector's construction projects totaled 363.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.04% year-on-year decrease, the first negative growth in five years [20][23]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's construction projects increased by 8.23% to 582.72 billion yuan, indicating ongoing investment despite revenue declines [40][41]. Market Valuation - As of May 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the basic chemical sector was 21.92, and for the oil and petrochemical sector, it was 10.58, both indicating low historical valuations [1][23].