黑猫股份（002068）：超导电炭黑进展顺利，国产替代有望加速

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company is advancing in the production of superconductive carbon black, with products currently being tested across various downstream industries, suggesting a broadening of application directions [1][2]. - Amidst the backdrop of US-China trade tensions, the domestic substitution process for superconductive carbon black is expected to accelerate, as the country remains heavily reliant on imports for specialty carbon blacks [2]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with a forecasted recovery in the carbon black industry due to stable downstream demand and the potential exit of low-end producers, enhancing market concentration [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a production capacity of 30,000 tons per year for superconductive carbon black and has launched 4-6 product variants, with several more in development [2]. Market Dynamics - China is the largest carbon black producer, with an estimated production of 5.608 million tons in 2024, but still faces a high import dependency for specialty carbon blacks [2]. - The carbon black industry in China has a low concentration level, with the top five companies holding only 41% of the market share, indicating significant room for consolidation [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 205 million, 260 million, and 303 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 43.71X, 34.38X, and 29.54X [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.132 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.955 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4]. Stock Performance - The company's stock closed at 12.16 yuan, with a 12-month price range between 5.25 and 12.89 yuan, and a total market capitalization of approximately 8.942 billion yuan [5].