贸易、经济及货币秩序的影响拆解：美国贸易战的历史镜像

Trade Wars Overview - The United States has initiated six major trade wars since 1890, using tariffs as a core economic strategy to protect domestic industries and as a diplomatic tool[3] - Historical trade wars include the McKinley Tariff Act (1890), Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), Nixon Shock (1971), US-Japan trade war (1980s), Bush steel tariffs (2002), and the US-China trade war (2018)[3] Impact on Trade - Tariff wars typically lead to a decline in global trade volume, with the Smoot-Hawley Act causing a 26% drop in global trade from 1929 to 1933[22] - Despite short-term declines, trade wars have not significantly altered the long-term trade deficit of the US, with the trade deficit with China increasing from $297 billion in 2000 to $336.5 billion in 2023[26] Economic Consequences - Trade wars generally result in reduced economic growth rates; for instance, the Smoot-Hawley Act saw US GDP growth fall from 6.2% in 1889 to -2.9% in 1894[28] - The Trump 2.0 trade war is projected to decrease the US GDP growth rate by 0.7% in 2025, with a corresponding 16% drop in exports from China to the US[46] Currency and Monetary Effects - Currency fluctuations are often a cause rather than a result of trade tensions, with the dollar's appreciation typically leading to increased trade friction[40] - The dollar's dominance as a reserve currency has been challenged, but its position remains strong despite ongoing "de-dollarization" trends[41] Asset Class Outlook - Historical trends indicate that during trade tensions, gold prices tend to rise while the dollar often depreciates[10] - Current negotiations and potential tariff reductions could lead to a recovery in global risk assets, although persistent tariffs may continue to exert downward pressure on economic fundamentals[10]