Sunriver Culture Tourism(600576) 广发证券·2025-05-22 07:25Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 10.42 CNY and a reasonable value of 11.04 CNY, maintaining the same rating as the previous report [3]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 55.22% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 158.67% year-on-year, attributed to acquisitions and government subsidies [7][8]. - The company is expanding its tourism assets across various regions, enhancing its competitive edge through synergies among its diverse business segments [8][9]. - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 13.85 billion CNY, 15.89 billion CNY, and 17.62 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.3%, 14.7%, and 10.9% [11][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Revenue (in million CNY): 722 (2023), 864 (2024), 1385 (2025), 1589 (2026), 1762 (2027) [2][12]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): 151 (2023), 147 (2024), 364 (2025), 403 (2026), 426 (2027) [2][12]. - EBITDA (in million CNY): 278 (2023), 348 (2024), 626 (2025), 695 (2026), 762 (2027) [2][12]. - EPS (CNY/share): 0.14 (2023), 0.14 (2024), 0.35 (2025), 0.38 (2026), 0.40 (2027) [2][12]. Business Segments - The tourism business is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 9.53 billion CNY, 10.48 billion CNY, and 11.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, driven by industry recovery and acquisitions [8][9]. - The tourism service segment is anticipated to generate revenues of 1.83 billion CNY, 2.74 billion CNY, and 3.56 billion CNY for the same years, with substantial growth rates [9][11]. - The cultural business, primarily focused on animation and related services, is projected to see a decline in revenue, with estimates of 0.55 billion CNY, 0.49 billion CNY, and 0.47 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]. Valuation - The report suggests a valuation based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a reasonable value of 11.04 CNY per share, supporting the "Buy" rating [11][12].