Minmetals Securities·2025-05-22 07:34Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium mining industry is experiencing significant changes, with companies refusing to cut production despite declining lithium prices. The report highlights that the overall production capacity remains stable, with companies opting for maintenance and upgrades instead of large-scale shutdowns [8][27] - The report indicates that the lithium price has dropped from 97,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 72,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, leading to a substantial decrease in profit margins for companies [8][27] - The report suggests that the current downturn in lithium prices may require some companies to exit the market for supply-side adjustments to occur [8] Summary by Sections Production - In 2024, the lithium salt production of the sample companies reached 447,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47% [11] - The total lithium salt production in China was 1,029,000 tons, with a 39% year-on-year growth [11] Inventory - Social inventory of lithium salt increased significantly, reaching 143,300 tons by August 2024, before slightly decreasing to 128,400 tons due to seasonal demand [16] - The inventory of listed companies decreased from 48,100 tons to 30,200 tons, a 37% year-on-year decline [16] Cost - The production cost of lithium salt decreased by 41%, from 112,200 yuan/ton in 2023 to 66,700 yuan/ton in 2024 [18] - The cost reduction is attributed to lower raw material prices and improved production efficiency [18] Revenue - The total revenue from lithium salt for the 12 listed companies was 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.2% decrease year-on-year [30] - The average selling price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 65% to 90,500 yuan/ton in 2024 [30] Net Profit - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the 12 listed companies dropped by 81% to 5.785 billion yuan in 2024 [37] - The decline was primarily due to reduced revenue and increased asset impairment losses [37] Profitability - The gross margin for the companies was 25.38%, down 14.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.52%, down 11.6 percentage points [46] Expenses - The total expenses for the 12 companies reached 12.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.6% increase year-on-year [55] - Financial expenses increased significantly, particularly for companies like Tianqi Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [55] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the 12 listed companies totaled 18.6 billion yuan in 2024, a 43% year-on-year decline [64] - The report indicates that companies are entering a period of reduced capital spending due to cash flow pressures [64] Debt Servicing Ability - The average cash ratio for the companies was 0.64, a 22 percentage point decrease year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio increased to 33% [71] - The report notes that while short-term debt servicing ability is under pressure, it remains within a reasonable range [71]