Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-22 08:40Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand, with the industry inventory steadily decreasing. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 3,216 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was - 9 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 203,373 lots, up 3,149 lots; for alumina, it was 373,044 lots, up 16,037 lots [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 66,175 tons, down 2,025 tons; the total alumina inventory was 251,154 tons, down 19,011 tons [2]. - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,475.50 US dollars/ton, down 5.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 388,900 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 9,333 lots, down 8,189 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.16, up 0.03 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum warrants in the SHFE were 58,422 tons, down 1,099 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 156,080 tons, down 13,585 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of A00 aluminum from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 20,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of alumina from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The aluminum premium/discount of Shanghai Material Trade was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 20,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount was 20,330 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of alumina was - 116 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73% [2]. - The alumina output was 732.30 tons, down 15.22 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 tons, down 30.02 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 tons, down 13.48 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume was 26.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 tons, down 0.05 tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 29.51 tons, up 33.55 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 55.50 tons, up 0.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. - The primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10% [2]. - The aluminum product output was 576.40 tons, down 21.77 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy output was 152.80 tons, down 12.70 tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 tons, down 0.16 tons [2]. - The automobile output was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.42%, down 0.35%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.15% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.49%, down 0.0021; the option call - put ratio was 0.83, up 0.0246 [2]. Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at a lower price" was still the mainstream. The average price of second - hand houses in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline [2]. - Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, promoting automobile consumption, and implementing home appliance replacement subsidies [2]. - In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of the global automobile sales in the first quarter [2]. - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed could be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies [2]. - The European Central Bank warned that after Trump introduced tariff policies, investors were moving away from traditional safe - haven assets such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [2]. - China supported 33 least - developed African countries to make full use of the zero - tariff policy for 100% of tariff items. From December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from the least - developed African countries reached 21.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]. Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply - side situation improved as some domestic smelters carried out maintenance and production reduction operations, and traders had a sentiment of holding prices. The demand was relatively stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approaching the upper limit [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai aluminum futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply was relatively stable as the new production capacity increment was small and the operating capacity was approaching the ceiling. The demand showed a slight increase overall, with domestic downstream processing shifting from peak to off - peak season and some export - related demand improvement due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes [2].