Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-22 08:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry, particularly in Xinjiang, due to its resource endowment and cost advantages, as well as the green transformation in energy [2][3]. Core Insights - Xinjiang is one of the main production areas for electrolytic aluminum in China, benefiting from low electricity costs due to abundant coal resources and low extraction costs [3][5]. - The rapid growth of new energy installations in Xinjiang supports the green transformation of the electrolytic aluminum industry, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [3][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics for electrolytic aluminum are tightening, with limited future supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and electricity [4][6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shenhuo Co. and Tianshan Aluminum, which are expected to benefit from cost improvements and stable performance [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Overview - Aluminum is a lightweight metal with extensive applications across various sectors, including automotive, construction, and electronics [13][15]. - The aluminum industry chain consists of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, and downstream processing [14]. 2. Current Status and Development of Xinjiang's Aluminum Industry - Xinjiang has significant coal reserves, estimated at 2.19 trillion tons, which supports its position as a leading electrolytic aluminum production area [26][27]. - The region's electricity costs are among the lowest in China, making it attractive for aluminum production [3][5]. - The growth of new energy capacity in Xinjiang is expected to reach approximately 180 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy accounting for a significant portion of the power generation [30]. 3. Key Companies in Xinjiang's Aluminum Sector - Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. are highlighted as key players in the industry, with strong operational performance and dividend stability [4][6]. - The report notes that Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 17% of the national total, indicating significant growth in the sector [46].