苯乙烯日报：下游3S提价难，需求偏弱格局难有改善-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: With the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's plant and the upcoming resumption of maintenance at CNOOC Huizhou and Jinxi Petrochemical, along with increased imports, social inventory is expected to rise, creating a bearish outlook for styrene. Currently, the supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, but some downstream products raised prices last week, and terminal inventory showed signs of reduction. Pure benzene production and imports are expected to increase, resulting in weak short - term prices and insufficient cost support for styrene [3][4]. - Styrene: The previous sharp rise in styrene has affected downstream industries. EPS, ABS, and PS are unable to raise prices in tandem, leading to compressed profits. Enterprises are under great operating pressure, and their willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials has declined. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations is expected to benefit exports, the current losses make it difficult for the supply - demand situation to improve substantially. The positive news has been digested, and the price of upstream crude oil fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the potential weakening of the market due to the decline in pure benzene prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Fundamentals - Price: On May 21, the main styrene contract closed down 0.77% at 7,570 yuan/ton, with a basis of 256 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton) [2]. - Cost: On May 21, the main Brent crude oil contract closed at $62.0/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at $65.4/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,125 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 21.3 million tons (-1.9 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 8.2%, and Jiangsu port inventory was 5.7 million tons (-1.2 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 17.2%. Styrene inventory continued to decline, and spot liquidity tightened [2]. - Supply: The overhauled styrene plants are gradually resuming operation, with an expected increase in supply. Affected by the restart of some plants, the weekly styrene output decreased 1.29% month - on - month to 32.65 million tons (-0.42 million tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 71.3% (-0.9%) [2]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream 3S products varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 62.3% (+15.0%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 67.4% (-1.6%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.1% (+0.8%), showing a significant rebound [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene: From May 20 to May 21, the price of the styrene futures main contract increased 0.05%, the spot price decreased 1.09%, and the basis decreased 5.19%. Among pure benzene prices, the price in East China increased 0.41%, the South Korean FOB price increased 0.14%, the US FOB price decreased 0.42%, and the Chinese CFR price increased 0.27%. The pure benzene internal - CFR spread increased 2.07%, and the East China - Shandong spread increased 50.00%. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased slightly [6]. - Output and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene: From May 9 to May 16, the styrene output in China decreased 1.29% to 32.6 million tons, and the pure benzene output decreased 2.94% to 39.0 million tons. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 17.23% to 5.7 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 8.17% to 21.3 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 2.50% to 12.3 million tons [7]. - Operating Rates: From May 9 to May 16, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased 0.93% to 71.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased 0.07% to 83.8%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased 3.00% to 78.0%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased 6.44% to 68.9%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased 14.96% to 62.3%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased 1.61% to 67.4%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased 0.80% to 57.1% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's gold imports in April soared 73%, reaching an 11 - month high - The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, with yields on both 20 - year and 30 - year bonds rising above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks - Anderson's CEO Bill Krueger said that if foreign raw materials are excluded, the mandatory biodiesel blending volume is expected to be 4.6 - 4.8 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 5.5 - 5.75 billion gallons - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0 [9] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [10][18][29]