原油、燃料油日报：原油库存压力明显，油价弱势运行-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the price is under pressure, with WTI and Brent continuing weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the upward space is restricted. Overall, the oil price may maintain a pattern of "low - level oscillation with a slowly rising center," and the fluctuation range may break through if the Iran - US nuclear negotiation fails or geopolitical conflicts escalate [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Data Change Analysis - SC crude oil rose slightly to 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, up 1.01% from the previous day, indicating a marginal improvement in the market's demand expectation for the Asian region. WTI and Brent continued to decline, with WTI closing at $61.34/barrel (down 1.46%) and Brent at $64.58/barrel (down 1.55%), affected by inventory pressure and demand concerns in the European and American markets. - The SC - Brent spread strengthened significantly, rising from -$1.15/barrel to $0.65/barrel. The spread of SC near - month contracts (continuous - continuous 3) changed from backwardation to flat price (-0.9→0.0 yuan/barrel), indicating a short - term alleviation of supply - demand contradictions [3] 3.1.2 Supply, Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Supply side: OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker than expected. The supply increase has uncertainties due to Iraq's reservation on the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. EIA data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to 110,000 barrels (previous value: 422,000 barrels), and the commissioned crude oil volume decreased to 89,000 barrels/day (previous value: 330,000 barrels/day), indicating a short - term supply contraction [4] - Demand side: The implied demand for US crude oil production rose to 19.291 million barrels/day (previous value: 18.735 million barrels/day), but the distillate fuel oil demand fell to 4.7703 million barrels/day (previous value: 5.2107 million barrels/day). The gasoline inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, showing a structural differentiation in demand. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels (previous value: 528,000 barrels), which may imply the government's concern about the medium - and long - term supply [4] - Inventory: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels unexpectedly (expected: -1.277 million barrels). High inventories in Cushing and globally suppress the upward space of oil prices [4] 3.1.3 Industry Chain and Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows the characteristics of "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the rising US commercial inventory, the decline in distillate fuel oil demand and the OPEC+ production increase expectation suppress the near - end price, and WTI and Brent continue weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the strengthening of SC crude oil and the repair of the near - month spread reflect the increasing restocking demand of Asian refineries. Coupled with the weakening expectation of the US economic recession and geopolitical risks, the oil price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the accelerating energy transition and the slowing demand growth rate limit the upward space, and the pattern of oversupply has not reversed [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose, WTI and Brent fell. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI strengthened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed slightly. The spread of SC continuous - continuous 3 changed from backwardation to flat price [6] - Spot prices: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases [6] - Inventory: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased, the Cushing inventory decreased, and the US Strategic Reserve inventory increased [6] - 开工: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [6] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU and LU rose slightly, while NYMEX fuel oil fell slightly [7] - Spot prices: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases. The spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in Singapore and China narrowed [7] - Inventory: The Singapore inventory decreased, while the US distillate inventories showed different changes [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - The US EIA crude oil imports and commissioned crude oil volume decreased in the week ending May 16. Iraq's oil minister has reservations about the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. Turkey's shale oil reserves are estimated to be 6.1 billion barrels. OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker [8][9] 3.3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US crude oil production increased, while the distillate fuel oil demand decreased. The渣油 market is under pressure [10] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased, the new - formula gasoline inventory decreased, the heating oil inventory decreased, and the crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly [11] 3.3.4 Market Information - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and the SC crude oil futures price showed different trends. The EU is discussing the oil price cap on Russia, and South Africa plans to increase fuel taxes. The shipping and wholesale markets of fuel oil are not operating well [12] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil, US and OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]