Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][3] Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1] - The company aims to focus on increasing market share in 2025, despite facing pressure on revenue due to price wars [1][3] - The single ticket revenue decreased by 0.11 CNY, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decline in average weight per ticket [2] - The company’s core costs per ticket showed a notable decrease, with transportation costs dropping from 0.47 CNY to 0.41 CNY [2] - Operating expenses significantly decreased due to government subsidies and tax refunds, totaling 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 compared to 735 million CNY in Q1 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q1 2025, ZTO Express achieved a business volume growth of 19.1%, although this was slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1] - The company maintains its guidance for a total business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1] Revenue and Costs - The single ticket revenue fell to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025 from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024, influenced by increased subsidies and a decrease in ticket weight [2] - The core cost per ticket remained stable at 0.94 CNY, with a reduction in transportation and sorting costs [2] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its strategy back to prioritizing market share over profitability in response to intensified price competition [3] - The report anticipates that while market share may recover, profit growth will slow down due to ongoing price wars [3] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 are 95.2 billion CNY, 112.0 billion CNY, and 126.4 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X [3][8]
中通快递-W（02057）：价格战导致收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心