瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has led to an increase in domestic urea daily production this week. Next week, one company plans to halt production while another will resume, but considering short - term equipment malfunctions, the change in production will be limited [2]. - Due to the start of local wheat harvest, urea agricultural demand is in a short - term lull, domestic industrial demand has weakened, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizers has declined. With summer drawing to a close, the future demand outlook is bleak, and companies mainly produce based on sales. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to decline steadily [2]. - Market sentiment has cooled recently, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and local factory shipments have decreased, leading to an increase in domestic urea enterprise inventories this week. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1900 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1849 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 83 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 223,161 lots, down 1,437 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 1,010 lots, up 2,329 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 7,573 sheets, up 25 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 1910 yuan/ton and 1880 yuan/ton respectively; in Anhui, it is 1900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 31 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 355 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.3 million tons, up 3 million tons; enterprise inventory is 91.74 million tons, up 10.02 million tons; urea daily production is 199,200 tons, down 2,200 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the monthly output of urea is 6,087,080 tons, up 610,930 tons [2]. - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.26%, up 2.36 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 74.82%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 191 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 370 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 6.8383 million tons, up 1.5092 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 37,160 tons, down 210 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 21, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 91.74 million tons, an increase of 10.02 million tons from last week, a 12.26% increase [2]. - As of May 22, China's urea port sample inventory was 20.3 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons, a 24.54% increase [2]. - As of May 22, China's urea production enterprise output was 1.4255 million tons, an increase of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 2.21% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points, with the trend turning from decline to increase [2]. 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and operating rate on Thursday [2].