Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-22 09:58Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting tapping. In Yunnan, raw material prices remain high due to rainy weather delaying the increase in supply. In Hainan, raw material output has improved but is still below the same period in previous years, and local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a decline in bonded warehouse inflows, but weak buying and lack of outbound motivation have led to inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. General trade warehouses are accelerating inventory reduction. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, with the outbound rate significantly higher than the inbound rate, leading to a reduction in total spot inventory in Qingdao last week. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase month - on - month. Most companies' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some companies have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,730 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 790 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 154,350 lots, a decrease of 3,022 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,318 lots, a decrease of 32,710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 365 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 199,540 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 47,678 tons, a decrease of 11,996 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, and the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.59 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 3.33 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 66 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 53 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 216,100 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.68%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.36%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.35%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a medium state, still affecting tapping. South of the equator, the red - flagged areas with heavy rainfall decreased, and most other areas had medium rainfall, with the expected impact on tapping decreasing. [2] - As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. [2] - As of May 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most enterprises' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some enterprises have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth. [2]