光大期货能化商品日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as unexpected increases in US crude and fuel inventories, changes in Chinese crude processing, and Iraqi oil production, and will continue to oscillate [1] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by import - export volumes, supply - demand relationships of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, and cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The LU - FU price difference has shown an inflection point, and the strategy of narrowing the spread can be continued [2] - Asphalt prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and demand. It may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2][4] - Polyester product prices are affected by factors such as device maintenance, production load adjustment, and PX supply. In the short term, both PTA and ethylene glycol will be treated with an oscillating mindset [4] - Rubber prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, anti - dumping investigations, and raw material prices, and will oscillate in the short term [6] - Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply, MTO device operation, and inventory levels, and price volatility may increase [6][8] - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply (upstream maintenance) and demand (tariff reduction), and will maintain an oscillating trend [8] - PVC prices are affected by supply (device maintenance and resumption) and demand (real - estate construction), and are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Wednesday, WTI new July contract closed down $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel (down 0.74%), Brent July contract closed down $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel (down 0.72%), and SC2507 closed at 463.1 yuan per barrel, down 5.1 yuan per barrel (down 1.09%) [1] - EIA data showed that last week, US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443.16 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 1.3 - million - barrel decrease. Cushing crude inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels to 23.44 million barrels. US net crude imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day, reaching a six - week high. SPR inventories increased by 743,000 barrels to 400.493 million barrels [1] - In April, China's industrial crude processing slowed down, with processed crude oil of 58.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. From January to April, processed crude oil was 240.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [1] - In 2025, Iraq's crude oil production was 3.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared to 2024, and exports were about 3.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.29% to 3,074 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 rose 0.25% to 3,571 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, China imported 1.8274 million tons of fuel oil, a month - on - month increase of 32.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.87%; exported 1.7725 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [2] - In May, the arrival of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes decreased. Before June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight, and the demand is also satisfactory. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with the increase in summer power - generation demand and the strong performance of the downstream bunker market, inventories are gradually being digested [2] Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.06% to 3,537 yuan per ton [2] - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, this week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.64%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.80%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 32.5%, a decrease of 3.34% from last week [2] - From the perspective of June's refinery production schedule, with profit recovery, supply may further increase. However, next week, some refineries' production conversion and shutdown may temporarily lead to a decline in the operating rate. In terms of demand, the concentrated delivery of refinery orders and the start of northern terminal projects support the rigid demand to some extent, but the demand in the southern region is average, and with the upcoming rainy season, the terminal demand will be further suppressed [2] Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,788 yuan per ton yesterday, up 1.18%; the spot offer was at a premium of 125 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,414 yuan per ton, up 0.02%, with the basis decreasing by 1 yuan per ton to 88 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,508 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,766 yuan per ton, up 1.47%. The spot negotiation price was $836 per ton, equivalent to 6,932 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 30 yuan per ton to 196 yuan per ton [4] - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales estimate of about 40%. A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today, expected to last about 2 weeks. A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and the current ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a preliminary plan to start full - epoxy production in July. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi ended maintenance yesterday, and the current load is around 50%. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow [4] Rubber - On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 120 yuan per ton to 14,820 yuan per ton, the NR main contract closed down 200 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract closed down 170 yuan per ton to 11,900 yuan per ton [6] - As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons (0.96%) from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week [6] - On May 21, 2025, the European Commission officially launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger cars and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China. At the beginning of the domestic and overseas rubber - tapping season, the production is low, and heavy rainfall in overseas production areas has disrupted tapping, providing support for raw material prices. Rubber imports have increased year - on - year, and inventories in Qingdao have slightly decreased [6] Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,320 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,037.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $256 - 260 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335 per ton. Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,115 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,530 - 2,580 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 4,985 yuan per ton [6] - Due to an increase in domestic plant maintenance, methanol supply has decreased but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas, the operating load of Iranian plants has dropped to about 70%, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is still recovering. Overall, the operation of MTO plants has changed little, the port inventory level is low, and the inland inventory level is also not high. Future attention should be paid to the restart plan of MTO plants and changes in Iranian plants, and methanol price volatility may increase [6][8] Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7,150 - 7,350 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 44.83 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of coal - based PP was 1,110.33 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of methanol - based PP was - 564 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP was - 746.74 yuan per ton, and the production gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP was - 132.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the mainstream price of HDPE was 8,040 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 9,269 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,549 yuan per ton. The market gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was 76 yuan per ton, and the market gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,483 yuan per ton [8] - Currently, there is a lot of upstream maintenance, so the overall supply pressure is not high. In terms of demand, with the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises have increased their procurement of raw materials, and inventories have started to decline. In the short term, the fundamental pressure has been released, and the valuation of polyolefins has recovered. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so there is still pressure on the upside of polyolefin valuation, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8] PVC - On Wednesday, the price of the PVC market in East China oscillated and adjusted. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC was 4,750 - 4,880 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC was about 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, individual products were adjusted, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,680 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,150 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, the price changed little, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,880 - 4,940 yuan per ton and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,000 - 5,150 yuan per ton [8] - Maintenance plants will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the construction of domestic real - estate projects has temporarily stabilized, maintaining the operating rates of pipes and profiles at a relatively stable level. However, as real - estate construction gradually enters the off - season, demand will gradually weaken. Overall, in the short term, due to maintenance disruptions, the fundamental pressure has been released, but as plants gradually resume production, PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week, US crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13] - Trade and shipping data showed that with the increase in production, Russia's seaborne fuel - oil and vacuum - gasoil exports in April increased by 8.5% from the previous month to about 4 million tons. Russia's offline primary refining capacity last month was 2.91 million tons, a 21% decrease from March, leading to an increase in fuel supply [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents various charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of inter - variety contracts, and production profits, to visually display the price trends and relationships of different energy - chemical products [14][30][44][60][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude - oil, natural - gas, fuel - oil, asphalt, and shipping analyst Du Bingqin, the natural - rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [75] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]