瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250522

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Lead smelters'开工率 and output decline due to unclear lead prices; the continuous decline in lead prices expands the loss pressure of secondary lead, forcing secondary lead smelters to cut 开工率 due to losses and raw material constraints [2] - The market trading is generally weak on the demand side, providing limited support for lead prices [2] - Overseas inventories continue to decline but at a small margin, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventories increase slightly, and overseas prices suppress the upward space of domestic prices [2] - Although the lead concentrate processing fee remains stable, it is still at a low level, which has a partial impact on the resumption of secondary lead and primary lead production [2] - The main contract of Shanghai lead has changed to 2507, and the operation suggestion is to short on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,685 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,986.5 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 65,208 lots, down 4,113 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,627 lots, down 163 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 39,327 tons, down 1,769 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 55,472 tons, up 5,968 tons; the LME lead inventory is 245,750 tons, down 600 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,625 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 24.07 US dollars/ton, down 6.01 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, up 149 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, up 3; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, down 2.85 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.45 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] Upstream Situation - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,085.71 yuan/ton, up 26.78 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,717.23 points, up 52.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, down 454,000 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2] Industry News - The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said an agreement has been reached on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap, and the voting time for the tax bill has not been decided [2] - The auction demand for 20 - year US Treasury bonds is weak, the yields of 20 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have risen above 5%, and the US stock market has fallen sharply [2] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the expiration of the tariff suspension this summer [2] - The EU is reported to propose a trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will fully control Gaza and reserve the right to take unilateral action against Iran; many countries condemned the Israeli army for firing at the diplomatic mission in the West Bank [2] - US media reported that Israel is preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down [2]