Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-22 09:56Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]