银河证券晨会报告-20250522

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the economy and the fiscal strength observed in April 2025, with overall fiscal data showing improvement in both total and structural aspects, supporting economic growth despite negative growth in public budget and government fund revenues [2][3][5] - The report emphasizes the strategic asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment in Europe, suggesting that equity assets outperform fixed income and currency assets during such periods, with a focus on structural opportunities across various phases of economic recovery [6][10] - The report discusses the significant growth of Crystal Optoelectronics, which has transitioned from a follower to a leader in optical technology, with projected revenue of 6.278 billion yuan (+23.67%) and net profit of 1.03 billion yuan (+71.57%) in 2024, driven by the recovery in the consumer electronics sector [12][13] - The real estate sector shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.80% in the first four months of 2025, indicating potential support for housing demand due to policy measures aimed at reducing purchase barriers [21][25] - The banking sector is experiencing a stabilization of interest margins due to asymmetric interest rate cuts, with the LPR and deposit rates being adjusted to promote lower financing costs for businesses and consumers, which is expected to enhance the overall banking performance [27][30] Fiscal Analysis - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a combined expenditure growth rate of 7.2%, while revenue growth is at -1.3%, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic resilience [2][3] - Government fund expenditure growth has accelerated, with a notable increase in special bond issuance, which is expected to further support infrastructure investment [5][3] - Land revenue has shown signs of recovery, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline to -11.4%, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [4][3] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the sales area for commercial housing has seen a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.80%, with April's sales area showing a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous year [21][22] - Investment in real estate development remains negative, with a 10.30% year-on-year decline in the first four months of 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges in the sector [22][25] - The report suggests that ongoing policy support may help improve housing demand, particularly for first-time and upgrading buyers [25][21] Banking Sector - The LPR has been reduced by 10 basis points, with the one-year and five-year rates now at 3% and 3.5% respectively, aimed at lowering overall financing costs [27][28] - The adjustment in deposit rates is expected to stabilize banks' interest margins, with a projected increase in net interest margins due to the recent rate cuts [28][30] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from improved fundamentals and a potential recovery in public fund allocations, which may enhance profitability [30][29]