BABA(09988) 浙商证券·2025-05-22 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - The report expresses confidence in the profitability growth of Alibaba's Taotian Group and the long-term trends and competitive landscape of its cloud business [1][2] - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, with customer management revenue growing by 12% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3.89% [1] - Alibaba Cloud's FY25Q4 revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, although adjusted EBITA margin declined by 1.9 percentage points to 8%, falling short of Bloomberg consensus of 14.25% [2] Summary by Sections Taotian Group Business - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 adjusted EBITA increased by 8% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 6.2% [1] - The growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is expected to potentially exceed expectations, driven by three catalysts: collaboration with instant retail, external link access from Xiaohongshu, and AI-enhanced advertising effectiveness [1] Cloud Business - Short-term supply pressures are anticipated to cause performance fluctuations, but the long-term industry trends and competitive landscape remain promising [2] - The strategic focus on cloud and AI is prioritized, with expectations that the upward drivers will eventually outweigh the downward pressures from R&D investments and depreciation [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are 1,087.93 billion, 1,165.38 billion, and 1,249.82 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.1%, and 7.2% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted at 191.79 billion, 200.43 billion, and 217.53 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.4%, 4.5%, and 8.5% respectively [3] - The report assigns an 11x PE to FY2026 adjusted net profit and a 5x PS to FY2026 cloud revenue, resulting in a target price of HK$160.1 per share [3]