Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-22 10:48Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, inventory is decreasing, while overseas inventory is rising again. Technically, the price has broken through the lower limit of the range, and the short - selling force has strengthened with increased positions. It is expected that the market will be in a weak oscillation. The report suggests either temporarily observing or lightly short - selling [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 123,400 yuan/ton, with a 120 - yuan increase; the 06 - 07 contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, with a 30 - yuan increase [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,630 US dollars/ton, with a 100 - dollar increase; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 50,453 lots, with a decrease of 9,195 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 6,871 lots, with a decrease of 825 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 200,910 tons, with a decrease of 876 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 27,742 tons, with a decrease of 66 tons; the total LME nickel cancelled warrants is 22,116 tons, with a decrease of 642 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,562 tons, with a decrease of 452 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 124,500 yuan/ton, with a 25 - yuan decrease; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 124,600 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,100 yuan/ton, with a 145 - yuan decrease [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.15 US dollars/ton, with a 3.11 - dollar increase [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 153.52 million tons, with an increase of 38.91 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 706.24 million tons, with an increase of 9.72 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 111.85 US dollars/ton, with a 17.44 - dollar decrease; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,800 metal tons, with a decrease of 500 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, with an increase of 661.27 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0133 billion tons, with an increase of 104.6 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 190.18 million tons, with an increase of 24.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 65.6 million tons, with a decrease of 110,000 tons [3]. Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity. With a high listing volume, "trading at a lower price for higher volume" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand housing in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing price in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [3]. - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. San Francisco Fed President Daly said not to act suddenly or rapidly without necessity [3]. - Fed's Musalem said that high uncertainty is prompting households and businesses to suspend spending and investment. If this situation persists, it will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [3]. - The central bank governor held a symposium on financial support for the real economy and stated that a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth in financial aggregates [3]. - Since the implementation of the zero - tariff policy for 33 least - developed African countries from December 1, last year, to March this year, China's imports from these countries reached 21.42 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [3]. Key Points - The implementation of Indonesia's NBP policy has increased the supply cost of nickel resources, and the premium of domestic trade ore has remained stable. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances [3]. - The cost of domestic smelters has steadily increased, and some smelters are facing losses. Meanwhile, the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is being released faster, and the output has increased significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has been compressed, but the willingness to start production is high, and the output remains at a relatively high level. The demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is small and the impact is limited [3].