Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in Q1 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected mid-single-digit decline in revenue and stable profit margins in Q2. However, revenue growth in India has turned positive, and TUMI is experiencing strong growth in Europe and China [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from $3,589 million in 2024 to $3,367 million in 2025, representing a -6% change. By 2026, revenue is expected to recover to $3,506 million, followed by $3,671 million in 2027 [9]. - Gross profit is forecasted to decrease from $2,152 million in 2024 to $2,003 million in 2025, with a slight recovery to $2,089 million in 2026 and $2,194 million in 2027 [9]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from $346 million in 2024 to $254 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $289 million in 2026 and $345 million in 2027 [9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.8 [10]. Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue changes by region were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. Notably, North America experienced a decline of -5.2% when excluding the impact of early shipments [10]. - TUMI's revenue in Europe and China showed resilience, with growth rates of 11.1% and 10.9% respectively, driven by new store openings [10]. Valuation and Comparison - The report includes a comparison of the company's valuation with peers, indicating a PE of 7.8 for the company in 2025, which is competitive compared to other luxury brands [11].
新秀丽（01910）：25Q1业绩承压，欧洲保持稳健，印度转正