光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日）-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term up and down drivers of Zhengzhou cotton are relatively weak, and it is expected to operate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and macro - level disturbances. The international market is mainly affected by macro factors, and the fundamental drive is limited. The domestic new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and the supply pressure remains [1] - For sugar, the recent drive is insufficient, and it is still treated as a range - bound market. Attention should be paid to future imports and domestic sales [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 66.05 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.22% to 13,440 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,339 lots to 574,400 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day [1] - Sugar: The beet planting area in Germany in the 2025/26 sugar - making season decreased by 6.6% to about 408,500 hectares. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,100 - 6,190 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,900 - 5,950 yuan per ton, with most prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar rebounded after a multi - day decline, and the domestic spot trading was average [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 185 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,127 yuan, down 28 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 80 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 287 yuan, down 24 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Market Information - On May 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,455, a decrease of 46 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 316 [3] - On May 21, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 14,487 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,578 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,592 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,717 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.2, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 53.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,484, a decrease of 352 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 91 [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices [6][9][13][16]