瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to impose a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity is accelerating, and prices have significantly declined, weakening raw material cost support. Steel mills are maintaining normal production, cutting 300 - series stainless steel production due to cost - price inversion and increasing 200 - series and 400 - series production, with supply pressure remaining. Demand has entered the traditional peak season, but due to increased macro - market uncertainty, downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced goods, and domestic inventories have slightly increased recently. Technically, it has fallen below the MA10 support, and positions have fluctuated significantly at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, and the 06 - 07 contract spread is - 50 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,963 lots, and the main - contract position is 123,141 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 141,742 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,750 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel 304 is 9,850 yuan/ton. The SS main - contract basis is 465 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 million tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 124,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.9018 million tons, and the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 656,000 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, the monthly excavator production is 33,200 units, the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 49,900 units, and the monthly production of small tractors is 13,000 units. In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities remained active, but with a high listing volume, "selling at a lower price for higher volume" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [2] 3.6 Industry News - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed should be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. The Chinese government supports African least - developed countries in using the zero - tariff policy on 100% of tariff items, and from December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from African least - developed countries reached $21.42 billion, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]