瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250522

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Mid - and long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phase - out results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled significantly, and the bond market has weakened in a volatile manner. Considering the obvious short - term differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality trading opportunities in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end bond price correction [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volumes: T, TF, and TS main contracts' closing prices increased by 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0% respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 0.12%. T, TF, TS main contracts' trading volumes increased by 12458, 4789, and 4013 respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 5858 [2] - Price Spreads: Some price spreads increased, such as TL2509 - 2506 (+0.09), T06 - TL06 (+0.18), TF06 - T06 (+0.01), and TS06 - T06 (+0.00); some decreased, like T2509 - 2506 (-0.01), TF2509 - 2506 (-0.03), TS2509 - 2506 (-0.00), and TS06 - TF06 (-0.01) [2] - Open Interest: T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts' open interests decreased by 5054, 6486, 3050, and 3764 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, TS, and TL among the top 20 changed by 0, - 1238, - 685, and +980 respectively [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds decreased, such as 220010.IB (-0.0199), 250007.IB (-0.2800), 200012.IB (-0.1172), and 210005.IB (-0.0029); some increased, like 240020.IB (+0.0207), 220027.IB (+0.0535), 250006.IB (+0.0005), and 240010.IB (0) [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds decreased by about 0.5bp, while 10Y increased by 0.8bp [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (+9.72bp), Shibor 14 - day (+0.90bp); some decreased, like Shibor overnight (-4.40bp), silver - pledged 7 - day (-4.17bp), and Shibor 7 - day (-2.60bp) [2] 5. Industry News - The central bank governor chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The latest LPR decreased by 10bp, and major banks cut deposit interest rates [2] 6. Market Performance - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bonds showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern. Treasury bond futures also showed a similar pattern. The central bank had a net injection, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded [2] 7. Fundamental Analysis - In April, domestic economic data was stable, with social retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial added - value exceeding expectations. Financial data was divided, and price data showed that core inflation improved but industrial prices were weak. Overseas, the US economic data in April was mixed, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts to July [2]