有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日）-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.71% decline to $9481/ton, SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.41% to 77770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss [1]. - Macroeconomic factors such as poor US Treasury auctions and warnings from the ECB have suppressed risk appetite [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1271 tons to 156965 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4520 tons to 41218 tons [1]. - High copper prices and premiums are constraining downstream procurement. Despite the sharp decline in the US dollar last night, the market's suppressed preference failed to drive up copper prices further [1]. - The market is concerned about a large long - position in copper, and the copper structure is unfavorable for short - positions. The continuous outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts indicates that some investors are conducting positive spread expansion trades, which helps maintain the current copper price. It is still regarded as oscillating with a slight upward trend [1]. Aluminum - Alumina trended slightly upwards, with AO2509 closing at 3243 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase, and open interest increasing by 27721 lots to 385,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended slightly downwards, with AL2507 closing at 20135 yuan/ton, a 0.17% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 944 lots to 199,000 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to 3077 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The news of Guinea's withdrawal of mining rights continues to ferment, and domestic alumina supply continues to cut production and conduct maintenance. Demand is generally rigid and shows marginal improvement. With fundamental support and ample speculation space in the news, there is still upward momentum [2]. - The low - expected ingot casting and outward shipment of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum, and the short - term effect of tariff adjustment on export rush continue. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to decline at a low level. With cost support weakening and seasonal off - season pressure, and limited boost from upstream alumina under the interweaving of long and short factors, it may continue to oscillate [2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.64% to $15630/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.32% to 123760 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23014 tons [2]. - In the stainless - steel industry chain, the weekly transaction price of nickel - iron raw materials remained stable at around 940 yuan/nickel point, with a slight recovery to 955 yuan/nickel point last Friday. The cost support for stainless steel has shifted downwards compared to the previous period. Although there has been some production cut on the supply side, the social inventory level has not shown a significant de - stocking state. The previous price increase was affected by macro - factors and nickel - ore policy disturbances, but actual demand is difficult to sustain, so it will maintain an oscillating state in the short term [2]. - In the new - energy industry chain, raw materials are expected to increase in supply, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both weak, and the weekly production of ternary batteries at the cell end has weakened. The production of primary nickel decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly last week [2]. - Overall, the firm nickel - ore price supports the nickel price, but nickel - iron is trading at extremely low prices. It will maintain the current range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the primary nickel inventory and the progress of the Philippine government's ore - ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - The report provides daily reviews of copper, aluminum, and nickel, including price changes, inventory levels, and market trends, and analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each metal [1][2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Compares prices, inventory, and other data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025, including the price of flat - copper, scrap copper, downstream products, and changes in inventory at different locations [3]. - Aluminum: Compares prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - Nickel: Compares prices of nickel products, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - Zinc: Compares prices, processing fees, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. - Tin: Compares prices, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Presents charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Presents charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - LME Inventory: Presents charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Presents charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Presents charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - Smelting Profit: Presents charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. The team he leads has won many awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [49].