兴业期货日度策略：氧化铝、黄金偏强，工业硅跌势未止-20250522

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Alumina, Cotton [1][2][10] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Methanol, Polyolefin, Rubber [1][4][10] - Sideways: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol [2][4][6][8] - Sideways with a Downward Bias: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coking Coal, Coke, Soda Ash, Float Glass [5][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily strategy for various futures products, analyzing their fundamentals and market conditions, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2]. - Due to factors such as policy uncertainty, supply - demand imbalances, and seasonal effects, different futures products show different trends [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Category Equity Index Futures - The downward risk of the stock index continues to weaken, but the upward movement awaits the accumulation of trading volume. In the current shock - building phase, focus on the long - position opportunities of IF and IM corresponding to domestic demand consumption and the technology main line [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, and the long - term downward trend of yields is clear, but the short - term new driving forces are limited, and the range - bound pattern is expected to continue [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are running strongly due to the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in AU2508, and new orders can consider selling out - of - the - money put options on gold/silver or buying on pullbacks. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to move within a range due to macro uncertainties and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina sentiment is bullish because of the fermentation of Guinea's mining policy, but the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [4]. - Nickel prices are in a difficult position, with the surplus contradiction continuing, but the cost support is strong, and the range - bound pattern is difficult to reverse [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon futures are expected to continue their downward trend due to the expected increase in supply and high inventory [4]. - Crude oil market has high supply concerns, and the strategy is mainly short - allocation, paying attention to OPEC's decision on the July production plan [8]. - PTA and ethylene glycol markets have short - term adjustments, but the downside support is strong [8]. - Methanol prices are falling due to increased arrivals and production [10]. Building Materials - Soda ash has no clear signal to stop falling, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - Float glass prices are not expected to bottom out and rebound before a new round of cold repairs by glass factories, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions in the FG509 contract [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar is expected to be weak in the second quarter, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [5][6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and new orders are advised to wait and see [6]. - Iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus in the future, and it is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for opportunities to short far - month contracts [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, and the strategy is short - allocation [6]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening of demand and the possible second - round price cut [6]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are expected to rise as tariffs support export orders, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas and macro - changes [10]. - Rubber prices are in a weak range - bound pattern due to seasonal production increases and poor demand transmission, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [10].