Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of production increase plan has pushed crude oil to increase positions and decline again, and polyester has followed. Polyolefins continue to focus on short - selling opportunities [1] - The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil always exists, and short - term geopolitical factors focus on the fifth round of US - Iran negotiations on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The news of OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July pushed crude oil to increase positions and form a long negative line in the afternoon. The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic exists, and there is a tendency for a new Iran nuclear agreement. The short - term geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran fifth - round negotiation on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line, and the end of the session accelerated the decline. The short - term may test the previous low. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2] Styrene (EB) - Logic: There is pressure from the decline of crude oil at the cost end. At the supply end, the ethylene plant maintenance is restored, new production capacity is put into operation in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to increase strongly under the current high profit of styrene [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to yesterday's high [5] PX - Logic: PX profit is at a low level, the device is still in the maintenance period, the downstream PTA start - up rate is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [10] PTA - Logic: The supply - end devices of PTA have increased, and at the same time, the polyester load and textile start - up rate at the demand end have also increased. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [11][14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [14] PP - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved 2% of PP production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the expectation of demand improvement brought by the Sino - US easing, the actual export profit has narrowed, and the short - term export demand is difficult to have obvious increments. In the future, it will still face the supply pressure brought by the restart of the device and the cost pressure brought by the decline of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined without changing the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the short - term pressure and take - profit referring to yesterday's high [18] Methanol - Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly month - on - month, the traditional demand fell to the year - on - year low, the port inventory remained stable at a low level, but it is facing the arrival pressure of the increase in Iranian shipments in early May, and the port inventory accumulation expectation is strong [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of methanol is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The strategy is to transfer the 15 - minute - level short positions yesterday to the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 2285 line [20] Rubber - Logic: The short - term emotional bullishness of Sino - US easing has basically been digested. Currently, tire enterprises have the highest inventory year - on - year, the start - up rate is at a year - on - year low, downstream tires are not subject to equal tariffs, there is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, involving about 1.2 billion tires. At the supply end, the implementation effect of Thailand's suspension of the opening - cut order is not good, the production areas are gradually opening - cut, and the increment expectation is strong without abnormal weather, still showing a weak supply - demand expectation [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Recently, the trading volume at the upper edge of the shock range was insufficient, and it was difficult to break through. The upper pressure still refers to the high point on April 8th. Recently, it is still a narrow - range shock to repair the oversold situation by trading time for space. The hourly - cycle strategy is to short at the upper edge of the range [24] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is the same as that of previous years, and there is an expectation of an increase in the start - up rate after the maintenance season. The terminal real - estate demand is still insufficient, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand continues [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of PVC is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term pressure still focuses on the 5015 line. The hourly - cycle strategy is to look for the opportunity to short when a reversal pattern appears [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The start - up rate of downstream polyester has increased, and the demand has improved. However, after the digestion of the unexpected shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant last week, the actual involved production capacity is about 6%, but the expected shutdown time is short and the impact is limited. In the future, it will face the supply pressure brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of EG is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support below refers to the 4315 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 4455 line [30] Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term support below refers to the 7100 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the take - profit referring to the 7225 high [31][33] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved about 2% of butadiene production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the digestion of emotions, it will face the pressure of increased butadiene supply brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity in the future. The butadiene storage capacity is low, and the price is likely to fall sharply after inventory accumulation, putting pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost end [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of synthetic rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term support still focuses on the low point on May 13th. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 12300 line [35][37]
新一轮增产计划推动原油再度增仓回落，聚酯跟随，聚烯烃类继续关注做空机会
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-05-22 11:47