棉花产业：险管理报：产区天气异动及棉花去库情况

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, and cotton prices may rebound in the short term. However, there are still many policy uncertainties, and the actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will still face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1232, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.293 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 to prevent rising cotton prices from increasing procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3]. Core Contradictions - The unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, but there are many policy uncertainties. The actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, and high - quality resources are scarce. The remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5]. - Sino - US talks have been held, and the US has suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the initial 90 days, with potential subsequent changes. Short - term export orders are expected to increase [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged [6]. - The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, the finished product inventory of cloth mills has increased slightly, and downstream enterprises are more cautious due to frequent policy changes [6]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13,485 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 05 | 13,505 | 10 | 0.07% | | Cotton 09 | 13,430 | - 10 | - 0.07% | | Yarn 01 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 09 | 19,695 | - 15 | - 0.08% | [5][7] Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1,191 | 64 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 20 | - 15 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 75 | 20 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 55 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6,305 | 25 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1,090 | - 70 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 655 | 0 | [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14,621 | 54 | 0.37% | | CCI 2227B | 12,788 | 67 | 0.53% | | CCI 2129B | 14,903 | 55 | 0.37% | | FCI Index S | 13,652 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index M | 13,477 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index L | 13,287 | 0 | 0% | [9]