EIA周度报告点评-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].