Orient Securities·2025-05-22 12:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 203.81 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 10x PE for JD Retail in 2025 [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 3010.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 127.6 billion CNY, up 43.4% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance in product revenue, particularly in the electronics category, which benefited from government subsidies and increased market demand [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the revenue forecast has been adjusted to 12832/13637/14266 billion CNY, up from previous estimates due to accelerated product revenue growth [11]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for the same period is now 433/489/518 billion CNY, down from earlier estimates due to increased investment in the food delivery business [11]. - The report indicates that JD Retail achieved revenue of 2638.5 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8][12]. Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%, driven by high-margin electronics sales [8]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 469.7 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, although profit margins were impacted by increased overseas expansion costs [8]. - New business segments, particularly food delivery, generated 57.5 billion CNY in revenue for Q1 2025, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase, but also incurred an operating loss of 13.3 billion CNY due to higher investment [8]. Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares, totaling around 1.5 billion USD, which represents 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8].