山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - Market Performance: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attributes: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - Inflation: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - Economic Growth: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - Labor Market: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - Real Estate Market: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - Consumption: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - Industry: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - Trade: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - Economic Surveys: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - Safe - Haven Attributes: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - Commodity Attributes: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].