美债收益率飙升施压铜价

Core View - On May 22, 2025, the surge in US Treasury yields pressured copper prices [2] Market Overview - On May 22, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,010 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 78,060 yuan/ton and a low of 77,730 yuan/ton, closing at 77,920 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The open interest was 153,000 lots, also with a reduction of 10,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - The US experienced a triple sell - off in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with the 30 - year US Treasury yield rising above 5% [4] Supply Aspect - In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a monthly import volume of 204,700 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month but down 9.46% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, down 0.81% year - on - year [4] - US exports of copper scrap to China showed a "double decline" in March - April. In March, the export volume was 225,000 tons (down 28.41% month - on - month and 51.51% year - on - year), and its share in the Chinese market dropped to 11.85%, ranking second. In April, although it increased slightly by 4.98% month - on - month to 23,600 tons, it was still down 43.98% year - on - year, and its share further shrank to 11.52%, dropping to third place [4] - Japan's exports to China reached 32,700 tons in April, up 21.02% month - on - month and 13.78% year - on - year, ranking first with a 15.96% share. Thailand's exports were 25,000 tons, up 26.9% month - on - month and 60.98% year - on - year, becoming the second - largest supplier [4] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, China's exports of copper strips were 10,741 tons, up 1.87% month - on - month and 19.84% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative exports were 39,166 tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 22, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons [5] Future Outlook - The front - loading of US import trade demand led to the continuous transfer of LME and SHFE copper to COMEX, which boosted copper prices. However, the negative impact of the consumption off - season on copper prices should be watched out for [6]