Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the approaching of June, the rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are fully opening for tapping. Given the expected increase in supply, the contract is likely to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the expected increase in external imports and the growing pressure of social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [4]. - Crude Oil: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening and falling, and significantly closing lower on Thursday. After digesting the bullish factors, the weak supply - demand structure dominates the market again. With the continuous production expansion of OPEC + oil - producing countries, the expected supply surplus increases, and the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. For the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. - Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants nears completion, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output are rising again. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.46%, a small month - on - month increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China was 1.9911 million tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 66,700 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.02%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 94.67%, a small week - on - week increase of 2.09%. The MTBE operating rate was 41.11%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a small week - on - week increase of 0.91 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 390,100 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 20,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 218,000 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 172,100 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 22, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 336,100 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 200 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 53,300 tons compared with 389,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - Crude Oil - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 473, a small week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 24 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.392 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 292,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.158 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.687 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.435 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 400.493 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 843,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was 90.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, a small month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points, and a small year - on - year decrease of 1.00 percentage point [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 185,301 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 9,873 contracts and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts or 15.55% compared with the average in April. As of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 145,373 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 49,217 contracts and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts or 5.79% compared with the average in April [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | 40 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,365 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,241 yuan/ton | 124 yuan/ton | + 124 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 453.9 yuan/barrel | 9.2 yuan/barrel | + 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][20][25] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, domestic methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏空氛围主导，能化偏弱运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-22 12:27